Friday, December 1All That Matters

The original analysis by reddit user /u/DeepFuckingValue that started it all


The original analysis by reddit user /u/DeepFuckingValue that started it all




View Reddit by Nqoba4View Source

32 Comments

  • Digerati808

    For those unaware, /u/DeepFuckingValue is the man that went all in on GameStop and started a revolution by sharing his position on Wall Street Bets.

  • Millitone

    Roaring kitty is one smart dude.

    Edit: yes that’s DFV
    Dude was not rich at all before GME
    He was renting his home
    He’s a brilliant long value trader
    Go subscribe to his YouTube channel
    I’m so happy for him and his fam!

  • Peoples_Park

    His analysis seems different from what actually occurred though. His thesis was that the next gen consoles were right around the corner, and that perhaps as games got bigger and more complicated there would be a revitalization of physical format sales. He also said he thinks that new management could turn the company around. He doubted that the stock price would increase quickly, even though he said he would like to see it do that.

    His opinion had nothing to do with sticking it to short sellers, or protesting against the market, or doing it as a joke. What happened took off because of a meme, and because people wanted to antagonize Melvin Capital, then really exploded when onlookers saw they could make money by getting in on the joke.

    His thesis was that Gamestop would actually be more valuable. What happened was that people manufactured a false sense of value by flash-mobbing the stock.

  • Theycallmelizardboy

    What people have a a sever lack of understanding here is that while he’s making a few fair points and possible things that a lot of people overlooked, he’s measuring here what he thinks is the *intrinsic* value of the company and why he think the actual value of the company stock is underrated or undervalued. So the real thing he was good about seeing or measuring here, was rating everyone else’s opinion or feelings about the stock but he kind of did so as a side effect. However, he was looking at the investment as an investment into the company itself and how it could improve in the near future. He basically picked the stock that Merlin decided it would short sell and thought foolishly was a safe bet, and then he got somewhat lucky because it was perfect timing/the perfect storm with everything that happened.

    Basically yes, he did his homework but the real takeaway here is that he foresaw the majority of people (including the assholes at Merlin) undervaluing this stock and he fortunately bet against that, except he did so for a different reason.

    It’s also amazing that people think that everyone who got in on this early are any better than the assholes on WS who literally do this every single day.

  • EndlessOcean

    Mercurial. Thinking so fast one thought begins before the other is out of his mouth.

    The dude did his homework. Fair play to the guy.

  • [deleted]

    Think of all the Nerds & high functioning basement dwellers that work at Gamestop stores.

    The suits were 140% focused on killing those jobs to make a quick earning for themselves (and their investors).

    The suits do this ALL THE TIME, it’s part of their job.

  • DollarBrand

    Don’t worship this guys success too much. He was right, but he also got very lucky.

    The reality of the situation is he valued the stock on a fundamental level. He’s a value investor. The current action on the stock, he did not foresee. He specifically addresses it in this video when he says [“I don’t know enough about the mechanics of the market…I’m not betting on a short squeeze”](https://youtu.be/GZTr1-Gp74U?t=2970). He thought the value would go up 2-3 times not what actually happened in the market. Not to discount his analysis, but don’t attribute the complete decoupling of this stock’s price with the value he’s talking about in this video.

  • JimSteak

    While this is interesting, the analysis of hedge funds that companies like Nokia, AMC, GameStop etc. are not looking well prepared for the Post-Corona-crisis years is probably correct. People buy their games online, and establishing yourself as a new player while steam, epic and origin are already well established is a pretty long reach. I’d bet on a downfall of these companies as well in the long run.

  • EverythingIThink

    I keep hearing the hedge knights talk about how there’s no fundamentals behind this but I feel like if they ever bothered to play a video game they might have realized physical copies aren’t going the way of DVD’s yet because file-sizes for games are fucking huge and tend to get bigger every year. You can only download so much to a console.

  • WhyWhySeeLurker

    replace consoles with oil

    Canadian Energy is deep value

    I hear the same negative comments

    My thesis. Energy crisis or fear of one in next 18 months. >$100 oil.

    Oilsands move from “carbon polluters”, “stranded assets” etc to irreplaceable strategic assets in the minds of the market. At least for a year or 2.

    MEG = $25
    WCP = $20
    PD = $100
    TCW = $10
    Kelt = $100

  • JohnFrum

    What I still don’t get is why other hedge funds don’t do what reddit did. Do some research, find where opponents are weak and squeeze. I guess reddit has the advantage to distributing the risk?

  • hello_hellno

    Man this guy was noooot fucking around with his analysis. That’s some deep shit. I thought it was just about the shorting volume but he didn’t even realize that till later on.
    Deserves all the success he’s getting!

    I’m late to the party but buying Monday

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